Even the relatively cautious Linear Model predicts that 54 percent of Californians would vote against a measure like Proposition 8 if one were on the ballot next year, while 55 percent of Oregonians would vote against a ban on same-sex marriage like the one the state’s voters approved in 2004. Neither prediction seems too far out of line: Oregon’s marriage ban was rejected by 43 percent of voters seven years ago, and California’s by 48 percent two years ago, and public opinion has shifted meaningfully in favor of same-sex marriage since then.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Nate Silver: California Voters Would Overturn Proposition 8 In 2012
Elections prognosticator Nate Silver has published another super-complicated voting trends analysis. Even though there's no plan to place a repeal of Prop 8 on the 2012 California ballot, Silver predicts that voters would overturn the measure if given the chance.
Labels:
California,
marriage equality,
Nate Silver,
Proposition 8
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